base rate neglect
/ˌbeɪs ˌreɪt nɪˈɡlekt/
ignoring general prevalence when evaluating specific probabilities
base rate neglect in a sentence
“Base rate neglect: assuming a positive test means disease, ignoring that most people are healthy.”
Origin of base rate neglect
Latin basis foundation + neglectus disregarded
Related Words
conjunction fallacy
judging a combination of events as more likely than a single event
representativeness heuristic
judging probability by similarity to a prototype
zero-risk bias
preferring complete elimination of risk over greater overall reduction
normalcy bias
underestimating the likelihood and impact of disasters
survivorship bias
focusing on successes while overlooking failures
clustering illusion
seeing patterns in random data