regression fallacy
/rɪˈɡreʃən ˌfæləsi/
failing to account for natural statistical variation
regression fallacy in a sentence
“I felt better after the ritual, so it worked—ignoring that symptoms naturally fluctuate.”
Origin of regression fallacy
From statistical regression to the mean
Related Words
Texas sharpshooter
cherry-picking data to fit a predetermined conclusion
post hoc
assuming causation because one thing followed another
cum hoc
assuming causation because two things occur together
slippery slope
claiming one event will inevitably lead to extreme consequences
false cause
incorrectly identifying the cause of an effect
single cause
oversimplifying by attributing an effect to one cause