Fallacies of Causation Vocabulary

assuming causation because one thing followed another

“I wore my lucky socks and won—so the socks caused the win.”

Origin: Latin `post hoc ergo propter hoc` (after this, therefore because of this)

assuming causation because two things occur together

“Ice cream sales and drownings both rise in summer—so ice cream causes drowning.”

Origin: Latin `cum hoc ergo propter hoc` (with this, therefore because of this)

claiming one event will inevitably lead to extreme consequences

“If we allow this, next thing you know we'll have total anarchy.”

Origin: From the image of sliding uncontrollably down a slope

incorrectly identifying the cause of an effect

“Crime rose after the new mayor took office, so she caused it—ignoring other factors.”

Origin: Latin `non causa pro causa` (not the cause for the cause)

oversimplifying by attributing an effect to one cause

“The war started because of the assassination—ignoring decades of tension.”

Origin: From reducing complex causation to a single factor

failing to account for natural statistical variation

“I felt better after the ritual, so it worked—ignoring that symptoms naturally fluctuate.”

Origin: From statistical regression to the mean

cherry-picking data to fit a predetermined conclusion

“Painting a target around bullet holes—finding patterns after the fact.”

Origin: From a joke about a marksman who shoots first, then draws the target