Fallacies of Causation Vocabulary

assuming causation because one thing followed another

“I wore my lucky socks and won—so the socks caused the win.”

assuming causation because two things occur together

“Ice cream sales and drownings both rise in summer—so ice cream causes drowning.”

claiming one event will inevitably lead to extreme consequences

“If we allow this, next thing you know we'll have total anarchy.”

incorrectly identifying the cause of an effect

“Crime rose after the new mayor took office, so she caused it—ignoring other factors.”

oversimplifying by attributing an effect to one cause

“The war started because of the assassination—ignoring decades of tension.”

failing to account for natural statistical variation

“I felt better after the ritual, so it worked—ignoring that symptoms naturally fluctuate.”

cherry-picking data to fit a predetermined conclusion

“Painting a target around bullet holes—finding patterns after the fact.”