Epistemics & Uncertainty Vocabulary

the alignment between confidence levels and actual accuracy

“Well-calibrated forecasters are right 70% of the time when 70% confident.”

acknowledging the limits of one's own knowledge

“Epistemic humility prevents overconfidence in uncertain domains.”

qualifying statements to acknowledge uncertainty

“Hedging with 'probably' signals appropriate uncertainty.”

producing false information without intent to deceive; filling gaps

“Memory confabulation creates coherent but inaccurate narratives.”

generating plausible but false or unsupported content

“The model hallucinated a citation that doesn't exist.”

connecting claims to verifiable sources or evidence

“Grounding responses in documents reduces hallucination.”

the degree of certainty or evidence supporting a claim

“She prefaced her speculation with its epistemic status.”

a degree of belief in a proposition, often expressed as probability

“His credence in the hypothesis was about 60%.”

measuring and communicating the degree of uncertainty in predictions

“Uncertainty quantification reveals when models are unreliable.”

things we are aware we don't know

“Planning for known unknowns is easier than for unknown unknowns.”

uncertainty that cannot be quantified with probabilities

“Novel situations involve Knightian uncertainty, not just risk.”

having more certainty than warranted by evidence

“Overconfidence leads to underestimating risks.”